Mathilda’s Weird World Weblog

December 27, 2011

Vaccines, dangerous misinformation and how to endanger your childern

Filed under: conspiracy theory — Tags: , — mathilda37 @ 2:30 pm

Just a brief post. I had a look at this turd of a site last night, and was fairly horrified by it. Enough to get me to post this.

Now, this website maintains that diseases like rubella, measles, whooping-cough etc really aren’t dangerous, and if you followed the downward trend in mortality rates over the past century would hardly kill anyone at all in a healthy, unvaccinated population. My brother believes this, and hasn’t vaccinated his kids because of it. Essentially, since we rarely see these diseases we no longer realise how dangerous they are, and assumed they’ve gone.

What the site doesn’t tell you is that healthy, unvaccinated people in wealthy societies with good health care still die from these diseases.

Yep, a bloody big omission.

A spent a couple of hours digging through mortality stats and rates for rubella, pertussis (whooping-cough) and so on. Here are the facts. Applying to a healthy, non-vaccinated modern population of 60 million through a complete lifetime, with modern healthcare but endemic infection rates.

Rubella

The UK mortality rate for rubella is about 1/400  (based from a recent Irish outbreak, America is 1/300).  Sounds pretty low, but if you apply it as an endemic disease a population of 60 million you would get over the lifetimes of the sixty million (drumroll)…

150,000 deaths.

Wow, not what the site claims. While it is correct in observing the mortality rate is much lower than it was through overall better health, it’s still a nasty disease that a lot of people (20% in one outbreak) need hospitalization for. I’m not even including the massive amount of brain damage in the unborn and brain damage/blindness caused by rubella infections in the health cost of the rubella outbreak.

Pertussis (whooping-cough)

America typically gets about 17 deaths from pertussis a year.  You’ll get the same kind of information from Australia and the UK. There’s a good article here about it, and a published paper on pertussis mortality here. It’s got a mortality rate of about 1/250 (New Zealand) and about 1/300 from Japan . Not nice. Also, I’m not mentioning the brain damage and lung damage it causes.

240,000 deaths

Measles

One thing the site had right was that way fewer people die from measles now, and this is mainly due to increased overall health. Mortality can run to 10% in poorer countries. In modernised countries it has a mortality rate of about 1/5000, with 10% needing an admission to hospital. Not the 1/25 million death rate Child Health Safety claims. That’s about 12,000 dead for the UK.

12,000 dead

Diphtheria

Has a mortality rate of about 5%-10%. In the USSR an epidemic infected 150,000 people and caused 5,000 deaths. Even assuming way lower rates of infection than say, measles and chickenpox, you’d still lose masses of people. Even assuming just 10% got infected, roughly…

500,000 dead

 

And these are just the handful of diseases I could easily find information for.

So, Child Health Safety and other anti-vaccination nut jobs, if allowed to implement their views across the UK, would be the cause of 150k +12k+240k+500,000 deaths. Hmm, if these cranks managed to get vaccinations stopped there would be over..

902,000 deaths

Exposing each of us to a 1/66 chance of death from just these four diseases. I’m not even including the chances of serious brain injury, lung damage, being crippled or left deaf and blind. Or dying from influenza, which the frail are routinely vaccinated against. And so on. The odds are that you’d be close someone who’d die or become disabled as a result of non vaccination. I’ve not even mentioned meningitis and pneumococcus. So your personal odds of dying as a result of non-vaccination would be closer to 2%. Which makes the  vaccine deaths/serious injuries (they aren’t 100% safe, I never said they were) you’d expect from the immunization of sixty million way more palatable. You are massively more likely to die/be injured by the diseases than the vaccines.

The Child Health Safety site has decided to ignore the data that doesn’t fit its beliefs. It’s certainly not based its ‘1/25 million death rates for measles’ in fact.

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