So, I had a look at at this and I have a few comments to make..
IT’S NOT REAL would be the first comment. I’ve watched it through a few times, and here’s my reasons…
There is way to much sharp definition on it if it is meant to be a large, distant object. Okay, you’d get that kind of wobbling trying to focus on a small distant object too; but a large poorly lit object wouldn’t give the sharpness of detail you see on the top. Also I have an issue with the light source (yellow, from above, at night?), and the total lack of background/context the footage has. Not a skyline or star in sight. If it showed a long shot and zoomed in, that might give it a sense of scale, but it looks like a small model filmed against a black cloth to me.
Probablility 1% (about as likely as ancient Pakistan being nuked).